In a surprise 5-4 vote that wasn’t on the agenda, Michigan’s independent redistricting commission approved its first statewide draft map for publication ahead of a series of public hearings later this month.
The draft state Senate map, voted through during the commission’s Friday meeting, would significantly shake up existing district lines and as drawn would make the partisan makeup of the upper chamber more competitive than it’s been in decades.
Although the commission has been building to this moment for weeks, the vote itself was unusual on several fronts. Just nine of the commission’s 13 members were present, the minimum required for a quorum to take votes. Voting on draft maps wasn’t on the commission’s agenda for the day, and the planning process previously agreed to by commissioners called for votes on state legislative and Congressional maps early next week.
Related: Michigan redistricting commission’s latest critic? The group that sparked its creation
A majority of commissioners present opted to suspend that process and vote through the Senate map on Friday in part because they deemed it compliant with the constitutional requirements the panel must follow to finalize Michigan’s political district lines for the next decade.
In all, Democrat Dustin Witjes, Independents Janice Vallette and Richard Weiss and Republicans Cynthia Orton and Doug Clark voted to move forward and approve the map, while Chair Rebecca Szetela, an Independent, Vice Chair MC Rothhorn, a Democrat, and Independents Steve Lett and Anthony Eid voted no.
Commissioners who voted no said they were primarily concerned with the change in procedure, especially with so many members absent. Four commissioners — Democrats Juanita Curry and Brittni Kellom and Republicans Erin Wagner and Rhonda Lange — were absent for the vote itself, although Lange and Kellom were present for other portions of the meeting.
Peruse the draft state Senate map commissioners approved Friday below. (Can’t see the map? Click here)
Based on the measures commissioners are using to determine partisan fairness, the draft state Senate map approved by commissioners Friday slightly favors Republicans but would lead to a competitive map that could give Democrats a shot at capturing the majority for the first time in decades.
Measures considered include the lopsided margin, which analyzes the concentration of Democratic and Republican voters in the districts as proposed, and the efficiency gap, which quantifies the number of “wasted votes” cast in elections — any votes cast for the losing candidate and any votes above 50% for the winning candidate. A low efficiency gap score indicates a more politically neutral map.
Both of those measurements show the map overall slightly favors Republicans, with a lopsided margin advantage of 4.5% favoring Republicans and an efficiency gap of 3.2%, also favoring Republican candidates.
But in one key measure, the seat-to-vote share, a commission analysis of past election data in the decade since the last redistricting process showed a slight advantage for Democrats, indicating the possibility of a 20-18 seat split with Democrats in the majority. The chamber is currently split 20-16 in favor of Republicans with two open Republican-leaning seats.
Other factors the commissioners need to take into consideration are a map’s compliance with federal population and Voting Rights Act requirements ensuring minority communities get fair representation, as well as communities of interest, geographic contiguity and compactness.
The process is still far from complete — the commission’s vote on the state Senate draft map means it’s an official draft being presented to the public ahead of the panel’s five public hearings coming Oct. 18-26.
Commissioners also tinkered with drafts of state House and U.S. Congressional districts Friday, although votes on those plans are coming next week.
The commission’s current timeline has members voting on proposed maps Nov. 5, after which an additional 45-day public comment period would begin. Under the current schedule, the first day the commission could vote on adopting the maps is Dec. 30.
Final maps for Congressional and state House and Senate lines require majority approval and support from at least two Republicans, two Democrats and two Independents on the commission.
Even if they finish within the proposed time frame, it will be well past the Nov. 1 deadline set in the Constitutional amendment that created the commission. Commissioners have long said the months-long delay in U.S. Census data caused by the COVID-19 pandemic significantly complicates the timeline laid out in the Constitution.
Browse the commission’s maps
The commission recently created a portal featuring all of the state House, Senate and Congressional proposed maps created collaboratively and by individual commissioners. See those maps here.
Public hearings:
- Oct. 18: Grand Rapids
- Oct. 20: Detroit
- Oct. 21: Lansing
- Oct. 25: Gaylord
- Oct. 26: Flint
How to weigh in:
Residents can offer feedback on their preferred district lines in person or remotely during regular commission meetings, or submit comments and proposed draft maps to the commission’s public comment portal.
For more information, Michiganders are encouraged to check out the commission’s website or call 833-968-3729, although formal comments on the redistricting process cannot be taken over the phone.
Those without internet access can mail their feedback to the commission at MICRC, PO Box 30318, Lansing, MI 48909.
Read more about Michigan’s redistricting process:
Facing time crunch, Michigan redistricting commission cuts back on public hearings
Draft maps for new Michigan legislative districts currently favor Republicans, analysis shows
Michigan redistricting commission alters its map drawing schedule again
As Michigan’s redistricting deadline looms, chair of commission has missed 10 of last 14 meetings
U.S. Census data has arrived. Michigan’s political map drawing can finally begin.
These 13: Meet the ordinary people tasked with drawing Michigan’s political maps
Students, retirees and a ‘shop rat’ are drawing Michigan’s next political maps
Redistricting commission considers hiring law firm that defended gerrymandered maps
What happens now that Michigan’s first round of redistricting hearings is complete?
Students, retirees and a ‘shop rat’ are drawing Michigan’s next political maps
These 13: Meet the ordinary people tasked with drawing Michigan’s political maps
Michigan’s redistricting commission wants to see your ideal political maps. Here’s how to make them.